A bold, and possibly unwise, prediction

Polls close in a little over 24 hours, and we’re facing perhaps the most unpredictable election in modern British history. This could go either way, or end in a parliament that is as well hung as Dirk Diggler.

But, it’s neck on the line time and, based on what’s been said and done over the last 24-48 hours, here’s the Farrang Fields prediction;

Labour WIN
By that, I mean a Labour total of around 300 seats, enough to stagger on at least for the time being. Note also that this doesn’t neccesarily mean Labour win the most votes – in fact, quite the contrary.

Yep, bold, quite possibly stupid and it could quite easily go the other way. But over the last few days a few things have stuck out;
Twitter is full of people who’ve flirted with the Lib Dems bouncing back, however reluctantly, to Labour
A YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that 46 per cent of us would be ‘dismayed’ to see a Tory government on Friday (caveat: no such question was asked of Labour)
Briefings from inside the Labour party – but very much in line with what’s there for all to see – that the Lib Dem vote is flakey and more than 20 per cent of voters had today not made up their mind – five per cent more than at most elections. Expect to see the Lib Dems surge on in seats they can realistically win, but not make a breakthrough more widely

And, above all else, this is not a hard election for Labour to win. The demographics, the electoral system… and the fact that Cameron never quite closed the deal with the British public.

The full prediction is as follows;

Conservative – 34 per cent
Labour – 32 per cent
Lib Dem – 25 per cent

Run through the general election calculator on Electoral Calculus, with regional weighting (Lab and Lib doing better in the North, worse in the South, that leaves seat totals as follows)

Labour – 296
Conservative – 250
Liberal Democrat – 72
others -14

A few tactical votes and imponderables here and there and Gordon Brown has a chance, at least, of crawling on for the next few months… and we can do it all again next year!


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