A bold, and possibly unwise, prediction

Polls close in a little over 24 hours, and we’re facing perhaps the most unpredictable election in modern British history. This could go either way, or end in a parliament that is as well hung as Dirk Diggler.

But, it’s neck on the line time and, based on what’s been said and done over the last 24-48 hours, here’s the Farrang Fields prediction;

Labour WIN
By that, I mean a Labour total of around 300 seats, enough to stagger on at least for the time being. Note also that this doesn’t neccesarily mean Labour win the most votes – in fact, quite the contrary.

Yep, bold, quite possibly stupid and it could quite easily go the other way. But over the last few days a few things have stuck out;
Twitter is full of people who’ve flirted with the Lib Dems bouncing back, however reluctantly, to Labour
A YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that 46 per cent of us would be ‘dismayed’ to see a Tory government on Friday (caveat: no such question was asked of Labour)
Briefings from inside the Labour party – but very much in line with what’s there for all to see – that the Lib Dem vote is flakey and more than 20 per cent of voters had today not made up their mind – five per cent more than at most elections. Expect to see the Lib Dems surge on in seats they can realistically win, but not make a breakthrough more widely

And, above all else, this is not a hard election for Labour to win. The demographics, the electoral system… and the fact that Cameron never quite closed the deal with the British public.

The full prediction is as follows;

Conservative – 34 per cent
Labour – 32 per cent
Lib Dem – 25 per cent

Run through the general election calculator on Electoral Calculus, with regional weighting (Lab and Lib doing better in the North, worse in the South, that leaves seat totals as follows)

Labour – 296
Conservative – 250
Liberal Democrat – 72
others -14

A few tactical votes and imponderables here and there and Gordon Brown has a chance, at least, of crawling on for the next few months… and we can do it all again next year!


What if you called an election and nobody came?

DID someone say there was an election on? You could quite easily miss it.
Driving around Blackpool (home to two tight marginal seats) I’ve seen two election posters. Count ’em, two. Both for Conservative candidate Ron Bell, a local councillor and former serviceman.
Impressive they were too, taking up the full garden of a medium-sized semi, wth the candidate’s face beaming out like that of Chairman Mao in a communist propaganda frieze. The only question is, who’s paying for them….
Not a single leaflet has fallen through the door since polling was announced. In fact the only campaign literature in recent months has been a two-sides-of-A4 missive from Ukip’s Hamish Howitt.
In what is surely a first for his party, the word Europe isn’t mentioned in a lengthy invictive about council waste, seemingy typeset in Microsoft Publisher, without the aid of a spellchecker.
Driving around – on the long road to Barrow a couple of times a week and on an ultimately unhappy jaunt up to Newcastle on Saturday, evidence of a Labour campaign is in short supply – although an impressive display of orange lines the A6 and A590 through Westmorland and Lonsdale, where Lib Dem Tim Farron looks likely to be re-elected. Evenly-spaced Tory posters in fields give an impression of strength but reflect the views of only a handful of voters.
At the risk of sounding prematurely aged, it’s all a stark contrast to he elections of the 80s and even the 90s, the days when things could only get better.
Take 1992. Turnout reached 77.4 per cent and John Major’s Tories won more votes than any party before – or, for that matter – since. Will any party break the 10 million vote barrier this time? It’s unlikey – Major’s Tories got 14 million.
There was a sense that the election mattered – just as there was in 1997. You couldn’t escape it even if you wanted to, ’cause the parties brought it right to your door.
Now, it seems, the ground war, the phalanax of canvassers, the leafletters, the knocking up operation, have become part of history. The air war – fought through mass media and staged events like tonight’s leader’s debate has taken over.
And, as every generations pass, the politicians become even more remote, and politics becomes something other people do. It’s a dangerous path, and the politicians – from the local councillor to the next PM – need to start burning up some shoe leather… urgently.